
<table style="text-align:center"><caption><strong>Reverse analysis: Dominant group mobilization, subordinate group civil violence and protests, and the provision of concessions to subordinate groups.</strong></caption>
<tr><td colspan="4" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td><strong>Model 1 Concession</strong></td><td><strong>Model 2 Concession (group-based)</strong></td><td><strong>Model 3 Concession (group-blind)</strong></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left">Dominant group mobilization events (last 5y, log)</td><td>0.081</td><td>-0.069</td><td>0.125</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.089)</td><td>(0.131)</td><td>(0.150)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Subordinate group civil violence incidents (last 5y, log)</td><td>0.009</td><td>0.005</td><td>0.002</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.053)</td><td>(0.076)</td><td>(0.068)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Subordinate group protests (last 5y, log)</td><td>0.019</td><td>0.322<sup>*</sup></td><td>-0.026</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.088)</td><td>(0.140)</td><td>(0.150)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">DN party</td><td>-0.144</td><td>0.152</td><td>-0.369</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.272)</td><td>(0.370)</td><td>(0.574)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">DN party in government</td><td>0.043</td><td>0.020</td><td>-0.542</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.259)</td><td>(0.385)</td><td>(0.397)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Months to next election (log)</td><td>-0.212<sup>***</sup></td><td>-0.191<sup>**</sup></td><td>-0.224<sup>**</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.042)</td><td>(0.059)</td><td>(0.070)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Battle deaths (last 10y, log)</td><td>-0.038</td><td>-0.167</td><td>0.104</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.117)</td><td>(0.183)</td><td>(0.163)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Democracy level</td><td>-0.130</td><td>-0.733</td><td>2.062</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(1.100)</td><td>(1.317)</td><td>(1.442)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Abs. size (log)</td><td>-0.059</td><td>-0.020</td><td>0.265</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.389)</td><td>(0.547)</td><td>(0.567)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">GDP p.c. (log)</td><td>0.350</td><td>-1.139</td><td>-0.318</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.486)</td><td>(0.874)</td><td>(0.569)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">GDP growth</td><td>-2.604<sup>**</sup></td><td>-1.690</td><td>-2.145<sup>**</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.806)</td><td>(1.090)</td><td>(0.815)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">no_conc_months_l1</td><td>-0.082<sup>***</sup></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.007)</td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">I(no_conc_months_l12)</td><td>0.001<sup>***</sup></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.0001)</td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">I(no_conc_months_l13)</td><td>-0.00000<sup>***</sup></td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(0.00000)</td><td></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">no_conc_symbolic_months_l1</td><td></td><td>-0.080<sup>***</sup></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td>(0.010)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">I(no_conc_symbolic_months_l12)</td><td></td><td>0.001<sup>***</sup></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td>(0.0001)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">I(no_conc_symbolic_months_l13)</td><td></td><td>-0.00000<sup>**</sup></td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td>(0.00000)</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">no_conc_nonsymbolic_months_l1</td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.094<sup>***</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.007)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">I(no_conc_nonsymbolic_months_l12)</td><td></td><td></td><td>0.001<sup>***</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.0001)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">I(no_conc_nonsymbolic_months_l13)</td><td></td><td></td><td>-0.00000<sup>***</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td></td><td></td><td>(0.00000)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Constant</td><td>-10.928<sup>*</sup></td><td>-6.304</td><td>-16.874<sup>**</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left"></td><td>(5.495)</td><td>(9.326)</td><td>(6.346)</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Country-FE</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Year-FE</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td><td>yes</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">N</td><td>32723</td><td>32723</td><td>32723</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">Log Likelihood</td><td>-3624.979</td><td>-1983.553</td><td>-1636.398</td></tr>
<tr><td style="text-align:left">AIC</td><td>7567.958</td><td>4285.107</td><td>3590.796</td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" style="border-bottom: 1px solid black"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="4" style="text-align:left">† p<0.1; * p<0.05; ** p<0.01; *** p<0.001; country-clustered SE's in parentheses; cubic terms for country-wise years without (group-based/group-blind) concessions included but not reported.</td></tr>
</table>
